World of Tanks Match Maker (MM) Is Not Random

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Santeri
Posts: 99
Joined: 2017-7-5 09:58

World of Tanks Match Maker (MM) Is Not Random

Unread post by Santeri » 2019-8-15 11:34

The following test was performed to test is the World of Tanks match maker random (MM) or not.

Test server: EU1
Client version: 1.6.0.0 #1410
Dates: 13-15.8.2019
Sample size: first 50 battles on a newly created account, one account for each test case

Setup

Both accounts were played by the same person using the same computer and the same internet connection. For both cases, the games were played at the same time of the day, on the same days, and in 5 games batches to both accounts one after another, to eliminate the possible influence of the external factors such as weekday and time. All games were played alone (no platoons), without interacting with other players, and just driving passively around doing nothing.

Test cases

Test case A non-stock tank:
  • as fully upgraded as possible
  • 100% crew with 6. sense
  • tier 3 non-premium tank pz38
  • loaded with gold ammo
  • fully equipped and all consumables in use, camo paint
  • premium account (received from completing the bootcamp)
  • used invite code YOGSCAST for extra gold, premium account and free Excelsior tier 5 HT which was sold immediately for getting silver for buying equipment, gold ammo and consumables.
Test case B stock tanks:
  • stock tanks
  • 50% crew, no perks/skills
  • tier 1 Renault FT, tier 2 FT AC, tier 3 UE 57 non-premium tanks
  • loaded with non-premium ammo
  • no equipment or consumables, no camo paint
  • no premium account
  • no bootcamp or invite code.
Results

Test case A:
  • Win-rate: 52%
  • Bottom tier battles(*): 0 (0%)
  • By participating in the battles, five otherwise lost games (10%) would have been possible to win.
Test case B:
  • Win-rate: 40%
  • Bottom tier battles(*): 8 (16%)
  • By participating in the battles, seven otherwise lost games (14%) would have been possible to win.

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Summary

World of Tanks match maker does not appear to be random and Random Battles are not as random as Wargaming lets us to believe.

It would be interesting to know which differences had the biggest impact to the win-rate:
  1. premium account
  2. camo paint
  3. fully upgraded and elited tank vs. stock tank
  4. crew skills/perks
  5. loading gold ammo
  6. completing bootcamp
  7. equipment/consumables
Here are a few more interesting things to test:
  1. If the first battle of a day with a tank is lost, will there be significantly more losses if you continue playing the same tank?
  2. Does play time or date have an impact to the win-rate?
  3. Does the amount of players on servers have effect to MM?
  4. How does the end of premium account effect to MM: 1) still having premium, 2) right after premium has expired (within 1 day), and 3) without premium
  5. Does MM treat differently accounts with over 200 or over 1000 battles?
  6. Does a new, stock tank give more rigged losses than an old, elited tank?
  7. What happens to MM when a tank becomes elite, 10 battles before and 10 battles after?
  8. What happens to MM when a crew received a new perk/skill, 10 battles before and 10 battles after?
If you repeat this test or perform a new test, please share your results!

(*) Bottom tier battles are battles, where the played tank was on the lowest tier with higher tier tanks participating in the same battle. It does not include same tier battles where all participating tanks are on the same tier.